Methodology
How the next fuel price is calculated
South African petrol prices are set once a month by formula. That makes the next price predictable weeks ahead, from data the Central Energy Fund publishes every working day.
Where the numbers come from
- Central Energy Fund daily report. The basic fuel price for each grade, and how far it has drifted from the price built into today's pump price. We fetch it once a day.
- CEF monthly press release. The DMPR's official announcement, published a few days before each change. It gives the confirmed prices and the coastal figures.
- Government Gazette. The fuel levy, carbon levy and Road Accident Fund levy rates.
How the projection works
Every working day the CEF compares what petrol and diesel cost on international markets, in rand, with the basic fuel price built into today's regulated price. The gap is the over- or under-recovery. An under-recovery means today's price is too low, so the next adjustment is an increase.
The adjustment is the average gap over a review window. The window opens a few days before the previous change and closes just before the announcement: 28 August to 1 October for the 7 October 2026 change. We take the average so far, so the projection firms up as the window fills in.
Next price = today's price − average over/(under)-recoverythen the DMPR adds any slate levy or levy change, and rounds to the cent
Worked example: 7 October 2026
| Average under-recovery, 28 Aug to 1 Oct | 328.894c/l |
|---|---|
| Rounded | 329.000c/l |
| Slate levy increase | +4.380c/l |
| Pump rounding | −0.380c/l |
| Petrol 95 increase | 333.000c/l (R3.33) |
Source: CEF monthly press release, 2 October 2026.
What a projection can't know
Policy. The DMPR sets the slate levy and any levy changes at announcement time, and they can move the price a lot. In August 2026 the slate levy dropped from 113.94c/l to 61.38c/l, and that alone drove the petrol decrease.
Once the DMPR announces, the CEF lists the new Gauteng price. From then on the site shows the confirmed figure, marked Confirmed, instead of the projection.
Inland, coastal and diesel
Inland prices are the Gauteng benchmark. Coastal prices (Cape Town, Durban, Gqeberha) are lower because fuel doesn't travel as far. The monthly adjustment is national, so both move by the same amount. Petrol 93 coastal is worked out from the 93/95 price gap, which is the same in every zone.
Diesel is only regulated at wholesale, so the diesel figures are wholesale benchmarks. Pump prices for diesel vary from station to station.
How often it updates
Every morning at about 08:00, with a retry at noon if the CEF hasn't published yet. Prices change at 00:01 on the first Wednesday of each month. See today's prices.